Forecasting and valuation

Navigating deals with precision
forecasting and valuation.

Drive forecast excellence and valuation accuracy.

We quantify addressable patient populations and market access dynamics to forecast peak year sales and revenue potential for pipeline assets or external opportunities. Our models factor in competitive forces, clinical meaningfulness, payer coverage, and other variables to build validated projections. Scenario analysis identifies upside and downside risks to inform risk-adjusted valuations. 

Equipped with our quantified forecasts and valuations, BD&L teams can optimize deal structuring with milestones, royalties, and other terms aligned to asset value. We provide actionable insights into pricing scenarios, growth factors, and exclusivity benefits to inform decision making. Ongoing tracking helps monitor asset performance post-deal. 


Opportunity Sizing

Leveraging real-world epidemiology data, clinical guidelines, and treatment trends, we accurately quantify addressable patient populations to establish the revenue potential associated with pipeline assets or external opportunities. Our detailed opportunity sizing analysis provides a strategic perspective on peak market size. 


Forecasting Models

We build customized predictive models leveraging advanced analytics to forecast product uptake, adoption curves, peak year sales, and long-term projections. Our forecasting helps to quantify revenue potential based on competitive dynamics, market access, differentiating features, and other variables. 


Scenario Analysis

We conduct scenario analyses to stress test key assumptions and provide risk-adjusted forecasts reflecting a range of outcomes. By quantifying upside potential and downside risks, we provide BD&L teams with the full spectrum of possibilities to inform valuation.


Valuation Advisory

Based on our opportunity sizing, forecast models, and scenario planning, we derive data-driven valuations reflecting real-world potential. We advise on optimal deal structures and terms such as milestones, royalty rates, and exclusivity considerations to maximize asset value.